Why the NBA Draft Lottery doesn't Work

Why the Lottery doesn't Work

I love the NBA, but the biggest problem with the NBA is the draft lottery. The lottery gives teams the option to tank so that they have a better chance to pick the best prospect like Andrew Wiggins. Even though teams will not admit to tanking, they are. The Sixers were a disgrace this season. They trade Evan Turner for Danny Granger who was then cut a few days later. The entire team was filled with D-League and undrafted players.

If the NBA wants to have the best possible competition, they have to have a different system than the draft lottery. Having teams trying to tank means more bad teams. It's that simple. Having every team try to make the playoffs makes a more fun league and it creates a more entertaining and more exciting season. Having teams lose intentionally in hopes to get a franchise changing player is incredibly risky because you don't know how good that player is until they play in the NBA and it destroys the franchises credibility.

Why teams shouldn't tank

Building a winning culture in the locker room and for young players is critical. Players perform better when they win. Greg Monroe is a great player, but he has never been on a winning team. If he was winning, that could elevate his game enough to become an all star. These kind of players who are talented and have the skill to become all star calibre players, are ultimately held back by a losing experience. A great example of how winning has made a player better is DeMar DeRozan. In four previous seasons he didn't make the playoffs. In that four season stretch, he seemed to be just a good supporting scorer. In his fifth season he had career highs in points, rebounds, and assets. He also made his first ever all star appearance. This all happened during a 48 win season. Coincidence?

Winning helps develop players and losing doesn't.

Cleveland getting the 1st overall pick in 3 of the last 4 years. 

I wonder if the Cavaliers have a deal with the NBA where they get 3 first overall picks for letting LeBron James go to Miami?

This is just amazing and really sad. It's amazing because this team had a 1.7% chance of getting the first overall pick, and they got it for the 2014 draft.

It's sad because this team had the 1st and 4th picks in 2011 (Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson), 2012 they had the 4th pick (Dion Waiters), 2013 they had the 1st (Anthony Bennett) and now they have the 1st pick again....You're suppose to IMPROVE when you win the lottery! They have now had 5 top 5 picks in the last 4 years. How is this team that bad? If this team doesn't make the playoffs again after this year, it's a joke. I feel for the Cleveland sports fans, but come on. This seems so unfair for a team like the Milwaukee Bucks who only won 15 games this year and they don't get the first pick.

What to do instead of the draft lottery

There was a lot of discussion about the lottery earlier in the year when we all thought this was the best draft in years. The Wheel was one option. The wheel would allow the teams to know what pick they have in each draft. All 30 teams will rotate between the 30 picks for 30 years then the wheel resets. Every year they know exactly what pick they have going into the season, and all 30 teams have a chance to have the first pick every 30 years. This means that even a great team like the Miami Heat could have the first overall pick regardless of their record. This doesn't work either. 30 years is too long for a team to have the first overall pick considering Cleveland has had it three times in four years.

Another option would be what the NFL does. Basically if your team has the worst record in the league, you have the first pick in the draft. If you win the championship, you have the last pick in the first round. This would be worse than the NBA draft lottery because now teams will work harder to be the worse team. Teams will lose more productive players so they have the worse record. This system wouldn't work for the NBA at all.

What I thought would work is what Bill Simmons suggested on the BS Report. Having a similar concept as the NBA draft wheel, but rather than rotating picks each year, the league would rotate draft groups. There are 6 divisions with 5 teams in each division. There would be 6 groups in the draft where teams pick from. These groups would be:
Group one (Picks 1-5)
Group two (Picks 6-10)
Group three (Picks 11-15)
Group four (Picks 16-20)
Group five (Picks 21-25)
Group six (Picks 26-30)

Each year, the divisions will rotate between these groups. The teams that are selecting in the specific group will have a lottery to decide who has one of those five picks.

For example. The Toronto Raptors are in the Atlantic. It's the Atlantic division's turn to have group one (picks 1-5). The Raptors are guaranteed to have a top 5 pick unless that pick is traded. The Atlantic division will then have a lottery (similar to the one now) to decide who gets what pick in the top 5. The following year, the Atlantic division will be selecting in group six (picks 26-30).

I feel like this is  the best way to go. This avoids tanking because the teams know where they will be selecting and we won't have these ridiculous lucky chances in the lottery like the Cavs had.

Even though I feel like this is the best option, there are cons. Prospects in college will have a better idea who will pick them which could result in more players going back to school. That doesn't sound too bad considering so many people think these college stars come out too early. It sucks if you're a team that isn't very desirable like the Bucks and a top prospect goes back to school because they don't want to play there.

The biggest reason I think the NBA hasn't changed it is because of the picks that have already been traded. The Knicks traded a first rounder to the Raptors for Andrea Bargnani. If the Knicks knew they were going to have a top 5 pick, they wouldn't have traded that to the Raptors. It would be unfair for the teams that traded draft picks in the past, if they suddenly decided next year would have this new system regardless of past trades.

The only way they could make this happen is if they make this new draft system implemented the year after the latest traded draft pick. That means we would have to wait awhile but I think it is a necessary move.

Adam Silver said that increasing the age limit on player entering the draft was the biggest priority, I think that the draft lottery is a far bigger problem that needs to be corrected.